Nov 19, 2021

Forecasted Dryer Weather Could Impact Crops in Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

After the quick passage of a frontal system earlier this week that brought only light rains to southern Brazil, the forecast is now for a return of dryer weather to southern Brazil. During the first week of a two-week forecast, NOAA is forecasting some rain in the southern states of Parana and Santa Catarina, but very little rainfall in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. During the second week of the forecast, dry weather is expected across all of southern Brazil.

Metrologists from the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) indicate that La Nina is in place, but the current La Nina is not as intense as last year but it is still expected to impact the weather in southern Brazil from the end of November through January.

The first potential impact of the dry weather would be on the first corn crop that will be pollinating and setting grain during December and January. As of late last week, the corn in Rio Grande do Sul was 18% pollinating and 5% filling grain and in the state of Parana, the corn was 7% pollinating earlier this week.

While the first corn crop might be impacted by dry weather, that crop only accounts for about one-quarter of Brazil's total corn production. Three-quarters of Brazil's corn is planted as a second crop in January and February after the soybeans are harvested.

Soybeans could be impacted as well if the dryness persists into January when many of the soybeans in southern Brazil will be filling pods.

The forecast for central and northeastern Brazil is more optimistic. Over the next week, the state of Goias is forecasted to receive over two inches of rainfall with ample rainfall also forecasted for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais as well as northeastern Brazil.