Dec 10, 2021
Conab Increases Soybean and Corn Estimates in December Report
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In their December Crop Report, Conab increased the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.78 million tons to 142.78 million. The 2021/22 Brazilian corn estimate was increased by 0.47 million tons to 117.18 million.
The 2021/22 Brazilian soybean acreage was increased 80,000 hectares from November and it is now estimated at 40.35 million hectares (99.66 million acres) which is up 3.7% compared to last year. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,539 kg/ha (52.7 bu/ac) which is up 0.2 bu/ac from last year. If this production estimates verifies, it would be an increase of 4.0% compared to last year and represent a new record soybean production.
The 2021/22 Brazilian corn estimate of 117.18 million tons represents a 34.6% increase compared to last year's drought plagued crop. The entire increase in the December corn estimate compared to November was due to a larger first corn crop. Conab estimated that the acreage of the first corn crop increased 50,000 hectares to 4.50 million hectares (11.11 million acres) and the yield of the first corn crop increased 0.5 bu/ac compared to November to 102.5 bu/ac.
Analysts in Brazil dispute the first corn crop production estimate due to dry weather in southern Brazil that has irreversibly hurt the corn yields. Estimates are that the yields of the first corn crop have been reduced by 10-20% which could represent a loss of as much as 5 million tons of production.
Most of the first corn crop is produced in southern Brazil and the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is forecasting below normal precipitation in southern Brazil for December-January-February. It is expected that Conab will reduce their estimate of the first corn crop in subsequent reports.
The first corn crop is pollinating and filling grain while the safrinha corn will be planted in January and February after the soybeans are harvested.
The production of the first corn crop is estimated at 29.06 million tons (24.7% of Brazil's total corn production) with the safrinha crop estimated at 86.25 million tons (73.6% of Brazil's total corn production) and the third corn crop is estimated a t 1.85 million tons (1.5% of Brazil's total corn crop.