Dec 14, 2021

2021/22 Brazil Soybeans 96% Planted, Dryness in S. Brazil Worries

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

I have a lower bias for the Brazilian soybeans due to dryness in southern Brazil, but I have not lowered my estimate yet because the soybeans in southern Brazil could still recuperate if rainfall would return to the region. There are some light showers in the forecast for Rio Grande do Sul this week with dryness returning later in the week. Additionally, the soybeans in central and northern Brazil appear to be on track for good yields which could compensate for some of the expected losses in southern Brazil.

The weather in Brazil was a tale of two extremes last week with parts of northern Brazil suffering from too much rainfall while southern Brazil suffered from a lack of rainfall. In fact, in the state of Bahia in northeastern Brazil, some areas of southern Bahia received as much as 12 inches of rainfall last week resulting in localized flooding and 20 municipalities have declared a state of emergency. Rainfall was good last week across central Brazil and the forecast is calling for more rain this week.

In contrast, southern Brazil stayed mostly dry last week with elevated temperatures and very low relative humidity. The forecast is calling for some chances of isolated and irregular showers this week in southern Brazil with most areas receiving three quarters of an inch or less. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the range of 30-36°C (86-97°F).

The 2021/22 soybeans in Brazil were 96% planted as of late last week compared to 95% last year according to AgRural. Soybean planting in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul has slowed due to dry conditions and some of the earlier planted soybeans will need to be replanted.

Rio Grande do Sul - Soybeans in the state were 85% planted as of late last week according to Emater and 99% of the crop is germinating or in vegetative development with 1% flowering. Rio Grande do Sul has been the state most impacted by the dry weather and the state has received below normal rainfall for 13 consecutive months since October of 2020. Some areas of northwestern Rio Grande do Sul have gone 60 days without rain resulting in poor germination and slow early growth.

Some of the soybeans will need to be replanted, but they need to be replanted by December 31st if the farmers want to be covered by crop insurance. The farmers will not replant their soybeans until there is enough soil moisture to guarantee germination and stand establishment. The corn in the region has also been impacted and there are reports of farmers cutting their corn for forage so they can plant soybeans instead.

Mato Grosso - The soybeans in Mato Grosso were planted very early and the weather has been beneficial for rapid crop development. Some farmers are worried that the cloudy and rainy conditions and lack of sunshine may take the top end off their soybean yields, but I think the conditions are good enough for Mato Grosso to set a new record high soybean production.

The earliest maturing soybeans in western Mato Grosso will be ready to start harvesting in 2-3 weeks and the first soybean yields out of Mato Grosso are going to be very positive. The weather in that part of the state has been good and these soybeans will be followed by safrinha cotton.

Parana - The weather in Parana has been getting dryer since mid-November especially in the western part of the state. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported earlier last week that the soybeans in Parana were 1% germinating, 55% in vegetative development, 35% flowering, and 9% filling pods. The soybeans were rated 2% poor, 15% average, and 83% good. This was a significant downgrade in condition from the prior week and the conditions will likely decline in this week's report