Dec 29, 2021

2021/22 Argentina Soy Estimate Lowered Due to Dry Conditions

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2021/22 Argentina soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 48.0 million and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.

Rainfall last week in Argentina was mostly in the southern and western areas. The driest parts of Argentina are north-central and eastern areas. Temperatures have been hotter than normal leading to increased evaporation. The forecast is calling for increased chances of rain later this week and in the longer-range forecast, but probably not enough to change the overall pattern.

The 2021/22 soybeans in Argentina were 73.3% planted as of late last week compared to 77.2% last year and 81.1% average. This represents an advance of 8.6% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans are 97-98% planted with 50-80% planted in southern Argentina and 10-30% planted in far northern Argentina. Rains last week in northern Argentina helped the soybean planting in the region.

The full-season soybeans are 82.9% planted and the double crop soybeans are 55.4% planted. Approximately 22% of the full-season soybeans are flowering. The planting of the full-season soybeans in central and southern Argentina should be completed this week.

The soybeans are rated 3% poor, 26% fair, and 71% good/excellent. The percent rated good/excellent is down 16 points from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 20% short/very short and 80% favorable/optimum. The percentage rated favorable/optimum is down 10 points from the prior week.

Below is the soybean planting progress from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. As you can see, the soybean planting is slightly slower than last year (red line) and slower than the 5-year average (green shaded area).