Jan 04, 2022

Hot and Dry Conditions Continue to Impact Argentina Soybeans

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

There were some rains over the weekend in central Argentina and there are a few scattered showers in the forecast for this week. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall will maintain stress on crops in northern and eastern growing areas. High temperatures and dry conditions have slowed the soybean planting especially in northern Argentina.

Up until this point, I have been hesitant to make significant cuts in the Argentina soybean estimate because the crop was still being planted and in vegetative development. I decided to make a significant cut this week because 30% of the full-season soybeans are flowering and the forecast for the first half of January is worrisome. There is scant rainfall in the forecast through the first half of January and the dry conditions will be accompanied by very high temperatures.

You also must wonder if all the intended double crop soybeans will get planted, especially if it stays as dry as is forecasted. Farmers in Argentina could still plant soybeans up until the end of January, but that would be really pushing the limit.

The 2021/22 soybeans in Argentina were 81.4% planted as of late last week compared to 87.5% last year and 88.4% average. This represents an advance of 8.2% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans are 95-100% planted with 60-90% planted in southern Argentina and 25-40% planted in far northern Argentina. Dry conditions are slowing the planting of the double crop soybeans with 71.5% planted as of late last week.

The soybeans were rated 8% poor/very poor, 36% fair, and 56% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 15 points from the prior week. The soil moisture for the corn is rated 31% short/very short and 69% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 11 points from the prior week.

The 2021/22 Argentina soybean estimate was lowered 3.0 million tons this week to 45.0 million.