Jan 05, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Corn Estimate Lowered Due to Dry Conditions

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Scattered showers over the weekend in southern Brazil did little to relieve the hot and dry conditions that have impacted the first corn crop for the last two months. The crop is too far along in its development to be significantly helped by additional moisture. Yield losses range from 20-30% in the good areas to 100% in the bad areas.

The first corn crop only accounts for about 25% of Brazil's total corn production. The other 75% comes from the safrinha corn crop which farmers will start planting probably this week in selected areas of Mato Grosso. There is a price incentive to plant as much safrinha corn as possible. The one potential problem for the safrinha corn could be the availability and price of inputs. At the present time, it looks like most Brazilian farmers will be able to plant their safrinha corn during the ideal planting window.

Rio Grande do Sul - The corn crop in Rio Grande do Sul continues to be severely impacted by the hot and dry conditions. Corn yields are going to be pitiful and there are numerous reports of farmers cutting the corn for forage instead of grain or even destroying the crop prematurely so they can plant soybeans instead or maybe another crop of corn if the weather permits.

Emater reported that 93% of the corn has been planted and that 26% of the corn is in vegetative development, 17% is pollinating, 27% is filling grain, 23% is maturing, and 7% is harvested.

Parana - The first corn crop in Parana ranges from acceptable in the eastern part of the state to terrible in the western and northern part of the state. The hot and dry conditions hit the crop as it was filling grain and any rainfall from this point forward would do very little to help the first corn crop in Parana. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) recently announced that the yield of the 2021/22 first corn crop in the state is expected to be down 40% or more.

Minas Gerais - In contrast to areas further south, the corn crop in the state of Minas Gerais has experience beneficial weather and corn yields should be quite good

The 2021/22 Brazil corn estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 113.0 million.