Jan 11, 2022

Potential Record-Breaking Heat to Impact Argentina Crops

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather was warm and dry across Argentina over the weekend and the forecast for this week is very worrisome. Argentina is currently in the midst of an extreme heat event with most regions of the production belt expected to have peak temperatures this week over 100°F with some areas as high as 110°F. The heat and lack of rainfall and cloud-free skies will impact the early planted corn and soybeans. The later planted corn and soybeans will not enter their critical reproductive phases until late January or February, but the development of those crops could also be impacted by these conditions. If the forecast verifies, this could be the hottest period in Argentina since 2012.

Rainfall is expected to return to the northern growing areas in the 6-10 day period, but until then, moisture stress on the crops will continue to increase.

The Argentina soybean estimate was lowered 2.0 million tons this week to 43.0 million, but if this weather forecast does not improve, the production estimate could decline to 40 million tons or lower. If this adverse weather persists, farmers in Argentina may not plant all their intended double crop soybeans. They still have approximately 2 million hectares of soybeans left to plant with at most three weeks left in the planting window. If they receive rain during the second half of January, they will plant their soybeans. If they do not receive rain during the second half of January, they may not plant all their intended double crop soybeans.

The soybean planting in Argentina was slowed last week due to the hot and dry conditions especially in northern regions and southeast Buenos Aires where the planting is most delayed. The soybeans are starting their critical reproductive phase under hot and dry conditions with little relief in sight.

The soybeans in Argentina were 86.8% planted as of late last week compared to 93.5% last year and 94.7% average. This represents an advance of 5.3% for the week. In the core production area, the soybeans are 99-100% planted. In southern Argentina, the soybeans are 75-95% planted while 30-60% of the soybeans have been planted in far northern Argentina.

The full-season soybeans are 90% planted while the double crop soybeans are 81% planted. The full-season soybeans are 39% flowering and the earliest planted soybeans are starting to set pods.

The soybeans were rated 13% poor/very poor, 49% fair, and 48% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage was down 8 points from the previous week. The soil moisture for the corn was rated 42% short/very short and 58% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage was down 11 points from the prior week.