Feb 08, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Soybeans 16% Harvested vs. 10% Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The rainfall in Brazil last week was mostly across the northern and central regions. Southern Brazil received rainfall over the weekend with the heaviest amounts in Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and western Parana. Rio Grande do Sul missed the heaviest amounts allowing dryness to linger. Rainfall this week will favor northern areas which will slow the soybean harvest. Dry weather should persist in southern Brazil this week as well as during the 6-10 day period.

The soybean yields in southern Brazil have been severely impacted and the yields in Mato Grosso and other areas of central Brazil are not good enough to make up the difference.

Estimates for the 2021/22 Brazilian soybean crop have been declining on a weekly basis and they now range from a high of about 142.0 million tons to a low of about 123.0 million tons. Most of the recent estimates would probably fall in the range of 125-135 million tons. The Brazilian production estimate has been a "moving target" and later this week we will get the latest estimate from Conab and the USDA. I expect them to lower their estimates, but they will still probably be on the high end of the estimates.

The Brazil soybeans were 16% harvested as of late last week compared to 4% last year and 10% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 6% for the week. The state of Mato Grosso leads the way with 46% harvested. Wet weather slowed the harvest in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and part of Goias. A lot of soybeans are being delivered to the grain elevator at higher-than-normal moisture levels. Farmers are concerned about seed quality if the wet weather persists.

Mato Grosso - The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 46.6% harvested as of late last week compared to 11.2% last year and 33.6% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 14.8% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in western Mato Grosso where 62% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in the center-south where 26% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Yields in Mato Grosso continue to be variable. For example, producers in the municipality of Tapurah in central Mato Grosso are reporting that yields thus far are about 10 sacks per hectare (approximately 9 bu/ac) below that they had initially expected. They are blaming cloudy weather and a lack of sunshine during the growing season and now wet weather during harvest for the lower yields.

In the municipality of Sorriso in south-central Mato Grosso, excessive rains in recent days have negatively impacted the soybeans in the region according to the president of the Rural Union of Sorriso, Silvano Felipetto.

Up until last week, they had 20 days of stable weather which helped the soybean crop to mature and for farmers to start harvesting their soybeans. Unfortunately, numerous days of wet weather kept farmers out of the field and the forecast is calling for more rainfall.

This is a continuation of the wet and cloudy weather the region has experienced since November. Farmers have complained that the heavy overcast skies and lack of sunshine during November, December, and early January led to increased disease and insect pressures because farmers could not apply control measures and lower yield potentials for the soybeans.

Felipetto now expects soybean yields in the municipality to average 55 sacks per hectare (49 bu/ac). He is estimating the total soybean production in the municipality at 1.9 million tons, which is down 200,000 tons or approximately 10% from initial expectations.

Parana - The soybeans in Parana were 2% vegetative development, 8% flowering, 58% filling pods, 32% mature, and 14% harvested as of late last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The soybeans were rated 31% poor, 33% average, and 36% good.

Some of the worst conditions in Parana were in the northern part of the state. In the municipality of Maringa in northern Parana, a lack of rain during November, December, and January resulted in yield losses as high as 70% according to the president of the Rural Union of Maringa/PR. Early yield results are in the range of 10-15 sacks per hectare (9 to 13 bu/ac) with poor quality.

In the municipality of Campo Mourao in west-central Parana, summer crop losses are the worst in 35 years according to the director of warehousing for the Coamo Cooperative. Corn losses are in the range of 50% and soybean losses are at least 35%.

Rio Grande do Sul - The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul advanced 1% last week to 99% complete. Usually by this time of the year the soybean planting has been completed but hot and dry conditions have delayed the planting.

Municipality of Sao Borja, Rio Grande do Sul - The last significant rainfall in the municipality of Sao Borja in southern Rio Grande do Sul was November 25th. Between then and now, the municipality endured weeks of record or near record high temperatures.

According to local agronomists, this was the worst drought anyone can remember. Dryland corn planted during August is yielding 40-50 sacks per hectare (38-48 bu/ac) and dryland corn planted in September was 100% loss. Even irrigated corn yields are down 30%. Soybean yields are down as much as 50-80% with irrigated yields also down significantly.

Farmers in the region use water from small local reservoirs on their property to supply their center pivots, but of the 56 center pivots monitored by the local agronomist, 36 are stopped due to a lack of water.

Goias - In the municipality of Rio Verde in southwestern Goias, farmers have harvested approximately 15% of the soybeans with approximately 40% of the crop ready for harvest. Initial yields are in the range of 60 sacks per hectare (53.6 bu/ac) which is about an average yield in recent years. Farmers are concerned that wet weather might slow the harvest pace and potentially result in lower yields and poorer quality.