Feb 09, 2022

Argentina Soy Entering Critical Phase as Forecast Turns Dry Again

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The rainfall last week was focused on south-central Argentina maintaining adequate soil moisture for the crops, but dryness is still lingering in northern Argentina. Over the weekend there

were light showers in southern Buenos Aires with generally dry conditions in central and northern Argentina. Mostly dry conditions are expected this week in central and northern Argentina allowing for moisture stresses to build. Below normal rainfall is expected in the 6-10 day period with seasonal temperatures.

Soybeans in Argentina are just now entering their critical reproductive phase. Early planted soybeans in Argentina are 37% setting pods and 4% filling pods while the later planted soybeans are 1% setting pods. The critical time for soybeans will be February and March and any dryer-than-normal period during those two months would be worrisome.

Heavy rains two weeks ago in northern La Pampa, western Buenos Aires, and central Buenos Aires resulted in localized flooding and the loss of some soybeans in low lying areas. I have not seen any official loss estimates, but my guess is that maybe they lost a couple hundred thousand hectares.

The soybeans in Argentina were rated 18% poor/very poor, 45% fair, and 37% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage was down 1 point from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 36% short/very short and 64% adequate/optimum.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their 2021/22 soybean estimate 2.0 million tons last week to 42.0 million due to hot and dry weather impacting yields and a reduction in the planted acreage of 200,000 hectares (494,000 acres) to 16.3 million hectares (40.2 million acres).