Feb 16, 2022

Weather is Worrisome as Argentina Soybeans Enter Critical Phase

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The soybeans in Argentina are now entering their critical reproductive phase and the weather is turning dryer once again. The weather during February and March will be critical for the soybeans and the forecast for the second half of February is worrisome.

Showers over the weekend were light in most areas allowing for dryness to persist in northeastern regions. Argentina is expected to be mostly dry this week and below normal rainfall is expected during the 6-10 day period. This will allow for dryness to expand again leading to additional moisture stress.

The soybeans in Argentina were rated 17% poor/very poor, 46% fair, and 37% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is unchanged from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 34% short/very short and 66% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is 2 points higher than the prior week.

The early planted soybeans are 48% setting pods and 10% filling pods. The later planted soybeans are 32% setting pods and 3% filling pods.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their soybean estimate unchanged at 42.0 million tons but indicated that more rain will be needed to maintain this production level. They indicated that the soybeans have been negatively impacted by below normal rainfall and very hot temperatures.

They are now estimating the 2021/22 soybean acreage at 16.3 million hectares (40.2 million acres), which is 200,000 hectares (494,000 acres) less than their initial expectation. There may also be additional lost acreage due to localized flooding in northern La Pampa and western and central Buenos Aires.

The Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating the crop at 40.5 million tons with the possibility it might fall as low as 38.0 million.