Feb 17, 2022
S. American Soybean Crop Damage Confirmed in Recent Reports
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Production estimates in South America have been declining for weeks due to hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay and recent estimates from Conab, the USDA, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange confirmed the extent of the damage.
Last October, we started off the 2021/22 growing season expecting South America to produce approximately 210 million tons of soybeans. We are now down to 174.6 million tons or 35.4 million below where we started and 24.2 million below last year's production. For corn, we started off the 2021/22growing season expecting South America to produce approximately 177 million tons of corn. We are now down to 168.0 million or 9 million below where we started, but still 24.6 million above last year.
The 2021/22 growing season is not over. The safrinha corn in Brazil, which represents 75% of Brazil's total corn production, is current being planted and the crop will need good weather through May to reach its yield potential.
In Argentina, the soybeans are setting pods and filling pods and the late planted corn is pollinating. Both of those crops will need good weather for another two months to reach their yield potential.
Unfortunately, the forecast looks worrisome for southern Brazil and Argentina with hot temperatures and below normal rainfall. So as low as these estimates are right now, they might move even lower before the growing season ends.
For Brazilian soybeans, the USDA is estimating the crop at 134.0 million tons and Conab is estimating the crop at 125.4 million tons. Private estimates in Brazil are as low as 122-123 million tons. For Argentine soybeans, the USDA is estimating the crop at 45.0 million tons and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating the crop at 42.0 million tons. Private estimates in Argentina are as low as 40.0 million tons or lower.