Feb 23, 2022
Brazil Safrinha Corn 53% Planted vs. 24% Last Year
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The first corn crop was severely damaged by the drought in southern Brazil, so Brazil's eventual corn production will be determined by the safrinha crop. My current estimates for Brazil's corn crops are 22 million tons for the first corn crop, 89 million for the safrinha crop, and 1.7 million for the third crop.
First Corn Crop
The first corn crop in Brazil was 29% harvested as of late last week compared to 22% last year according to AgRural. This equates to an increase of 6% for the week.
Rio Grande do Sul -The corn in the state was 54% harvested as of late last week compared to 41% last year and 40% average. This represents an increase of 6% for the week. The yields thus far are 53% below initial expectations. The corn acreage is estimated at 834,000 hectares or up 6.9% compared to last year. Emater is now estimating the corn production in Rio Grande do Sul at 2.7 million tons which is down 54% from their initial estimate of 6.1 million tons. Last year the state produced 4.3 million tons.
Parana - Deral reported earlier last week that 26% of the first corn crop had been harvested. The corn still in the field was rated 23% poor, 37% average, and 40% good. The corn in western Parana continue to be rated the lowest.
Safrinha Corn Crop
The Brazilian safrinha corn was 53% planted as of late last week compared to 24% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 11% for the week. There are distinct differences in planting conditions between the northern safrinha corn areas and the southern safrinha corn areas.
In the northern areas, which include the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais, conditions are generally wet and the soil moisture is more than adequate. In the southern areas, which include the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo, the conditions are generally dry and they are short on soil moisture.
The safrinha corn in the northern areas should get off to a good start, at least for now. The risk in the northern areas is if the summer rains end earlier than normal. A normal end to the summer rainy season would be sometime in early May. The safrinha corn in the southern areas is getting off to less than an ideal start due to dry conditions. The risk for the southern areas would also be an early end to the summer rains and an earlier than normal frost. Any frost before the end of July could be a problem for the safrinha corn in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso had planted 68.4% of their safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 35.9% last year and 61.3% average. Planting is now about 7% ahead of average. Planting is most advanced in the mid-north region where 80% of the corn has been planted. The slowest planting is in the south-central region where 40% of the corn has been planted.
Imea is estimating that the safrinha corn in Mato Grosso will set a record high production of 40.4 million tons. They are estimating that the statewide average corn yield will be 107.3 sacks per hectare (102.3 bu/ac), which would be an increase of 14 bu/ac compared to last year's yield of 92.5 sacks per hectare (88.2 bu/ac). The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 6.2 million hectares.
Parana - Farmers in Parana had planted 29% of their safrinha corn as of earlier last week and the corn was rated 16% average and 84% good. There are reports that some farmers are waiting for additional moisture before they plant their safrinha corn. Farmers in the state are expected to plant 2.5 million hectares of safrinha corn, which would be approximately 85% of the corn planted in the state.
Below is a table showing Conab's latest estimates for safrinha corn production in the various states. Approximately 60% of the safrinha production is in the northern areas which include the states of Mat Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais. Approximately 30% of the production is in the southern areas which include the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo.
Brazil Safrinha Corn Production – 2020/21 vs. 2021/22
|State||2020/21 Safrinha Production||2021/22 Safrinha Production||Percent of 2021/22 Production|
|million metric tons||%|
|Mato Grosso do Sul||6.3||10.8||12.5%|
Source Conab Crop Report - February 2022