Mar 01, 2022

Conab Special Crop Survey in S. Brazil May Have Been Warranted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

During February, Conab conducted a special crop survey in the four states in southern Brazil to better evaluate the damage to the soybean crop caused by the drought. They might have had good reason to reevaluate the situation because Emater in Rio Grande do Sul last week estimated the soybean production at 2.7 million tons less than Conab. Also, late last week, Deral in Parana lowered their soybean estimate which is now 1.4 million tons less than Conab.

It is hard to know which of these estimates are correct, the state agencies or Conab, but these two state agencies are collectively 4.1 million tons less than Conab's February estimate of 125.4 million tons for Brazil's 2021/22 soybean production. While it is possible that Conab might lower their estimate for the soybean production in southern Brazil, it is also possible that they might increase their estimate for soybean production in northern and northeastern Brazil.

Conab will release their next monthly crop estimate on March 10th. Last month they shocked the market by lowering the Brazilian soybean estimate by 15 million tons to 125.4 million. My guess is that their March estimate will be between 120.0 to 124.0 million tons.