Mar 02, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Soybeans 44% Harvested vs. 25% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall last week and over the weekend was heaviest in northwestern Mato Grosso, central Mato Grosso do Sul, western Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Rio Grande do Sul. Prior to the rain over the weekend, the city of Uruguaiana in far western Rio Grande do Sul recorded a temperature of 42.9°C (107°F), which was the highest temperature ever recorded in the state since records started in 1910. The forecast is calling for more rain this week in southern Brazil with lighter amounts in central and northern Brazil.

The Brazilian soybeans were 44% harvested late last week compared to 25% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 11% for the week. Once again, the harvest is most advanced in Mato Grosso at 78% as farmers harvested between rains. A lot of the soybeans are being harvested at high moisture and there are reports of poor-quality seed. There are also quality concerns in parts of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Piaui, and Rondonia.

The harvest is just getting started in Rio Grande do Sul with low yields being reported. In western Parana the harvest is close to being completed with low yields also reported.

Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso had harvested 78% of their soybeans as of late last week compared to 52% last year and 72% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 10.4% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region with 87.8% of the soybeans harvested. The slowest harvest is the center-south with 59% of the soybeans harvested.

As you can see on the graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), the current soybean harvest (red line) is now only 6 points ahead of average which equates to about 3-4 days ahead of average. Given the dryer forecast for Mato Grosso, I think the harvest pace in the state will continue to be a few days ahead of average until the end.


Parana - Farmers in Parana had harvested 29% of the soybeans as of earlier last week according to Deral. The remaining soybeans in the field were rated 32% poor, 30% average, and 38% good. Last week, Deral lowered their soybean production estimate for the state by 1.19 million tons to 11.63 million. They estimated the soybean acreage at 5.64 million hectares (13.9 million acres) and a statewide yield of 34.36 sacks per hectare (30.7 bu/ac). Deral's estimate is 1.4 million tons lower than Conab's current estimate of 13.04 million tons.

In the municipality of Sao Joao in southern Parana, the yields of soybeans planted in September are down 60% from initial expectations because the hot and dry conditions hit the crop as it was filling pods according to the president of the Rural Union of Sao Joao/PR. The yields of soybeans planted in October are down 40% because the weather improved somewhat by the time the crop was filling pods.

One example is a producer who harvested 18 sacks per hectare (16 bu/ac) on 148 hectares and 40 of those hectares were not even harvested because the yields were so low. In addition to low yields, the soybeans are poor quality and the price is discounted when delivered to the local grain elevation.

It is not all bad news in the state of Parana. In the municipality of Castro in eastern Parana, the soybeans were planted later and the weather has been more beneficial for the soybeans. The president of the Rural Union of Castro/PR expects the soybean yields to be down only 8% in the municipality compared to 40% statewide. He expects the municipality to have about an average soybean yield with some of the better producers expecting yields as high as 70 sacks per hectare (62.5 bu/ac).

Rio Grande do Sul - The soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 1% harvested late last week with 28% flowering, 55% filling pods and 10% mature according to Emater. Early yields are reported to be very low, which was expected given the adverse weather.

Prior to weekend rains, 84% of the municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul (418 out of a total of 497 municipalities) had declared a state of emergency due to the drought. The Brazilian National Weather Service estimated that 9% of the state was in extreme drought and 57% in grave drought. Emater estimated that 253,000 properties had been impacted by the drought and that 22,000 families did not have access to water. In the state, 92,800 corn producers, 82,400 soybean producers, and 27,289 dairy producers have suffered losses due to the drought.