Mar 03, 2022

Drought in Argentina Hit Early Planted Soy More Than Late Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Showers over the weekend in Argentina favored Cordoba, central and southern Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and northern and eastern Buenos Aires. Hot and dry conditions in northern areas maintained moisture stress on the crops. The forecast is calling for scattered showers this week in some of the northern areas and more widespread showers across much of Argentina in the 6-10 day period.

The weather over the last several weeks has improved and the improvement is most important for the later plated soybeans especially in northern Argentina. In the north-central production area, which includes north-central Cordoba and Santa Fe, the northern core area, and Entre Rios, variable rainfall has resulted in lower expectations for the soybean yields.

The area mentioned above accounts for approximately 35% of Argentina's soybean production and the yields of the early planted soybeans are expected to be down 30% from initial expectations with the yields of the later planted soybeans are expected to be down 10%.

The early planted soybeans are 33% filling pods and 3% mature. The later planted soybeans are 21% setting pods and 1.3% filling pods. There have not been any reports of soybeans being harvested, but in the core production area, there might be a field or two harvested this week.

The soybeans were rated 28% poor/very poor, 48% fair, and 24% good/excellent late last week by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The good/excellent percentage is down 7 points from the prior week. The soil moisture for the corn was rated 40% short and 60% favorable/optimum.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating the 2021/22 soybean crop at 42.0 million tons while the Rosario Exchange is estimating the crop at 40.5 million. The Rosario Exchange is using a nationwide soybean yield of 2,640 kg/ha (39.3 bu/ac), which is the lowest yield in 14 years. They do not think any provincial yield will be more than 3, 000 kg/ha (44.7 bu/ac).

The Rosario Exchange estimates that 750,000 hectares of soybeans (1.85 million acres) will not be harvested. They stated that the 2021/22 crop along with the 2008/09 crop are the two biggest agricultural disasters in the last 15 years.