Mar 23, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Soybeans 69% Harvested vs. 59% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Farmers in Brazil had harvested 69% of the 2021/22 soybeans as of late last week compared to 59% last year and 61.6 average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 5% for the week. The last two areas remaining to be harvested are northeastern Brazil and far southern Brazil. In northeastern Brazil, the soybeans in Bahia are 43% harvested, Maranhao is 60%, Piaui is 61%, and Tocantins is 69%. In Rio Grande do Sul, the soybeans are 9% harvested.

Mato Grosso - Farmers in the state had harvested 98.8% of their soybeans as of late last week compared to 91.7% last year and 95.5% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).

Farmers in Mato Grosso have sold 61% of their 2021/22 soybeans - The 2021/22 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is essentially complete and farmers in the state have sold 61% of their soybeans compared to 75% last year and 67% average according to the Imea. This represents an advance of 6% compared to the prior month.

For the 2022/23 soybeans that farmers in the state will plant starting in September, they have forward contracted 16.2% of their anticipated production compared to 23.5% last year and 9.2% average. This represents an advance of 4% from the prior month.

Farmers are reluctant to forward contact too much of their 2022/23 soybean crop due to high input costs and the uncertainty surrounding fertilizer prices and availability. The war between Russia and Ukraine has thrown the fertilizer market into disarray because Russia and Belarus are significant suppliers of fertilizers and it is uncertain how much of their fertilizers will be exported. Imported fertilizers account for 85% of the fertilizers used in Brazil.

Parana - Farmers in Parana had harvested 68% of their 2021/22 soybeans earlier last week compared to 58% last year according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). This represents an advance of 14% for the week. The percentage of the remaining crop rated good improved to 50% compared to 46% the prior week. The improvement was because the poorest crops have already been harvested. Last year at this time, 81% of the soybeans were rated good.

The soybeans in the state were impacted by drought and record high temperatures when the soybeans were filling pods in December and January. At the end of February, Deral estimated the state's soybean production at 12.83 million tons, which is down 45% from initial expectations.

In the municipality of Palotina in western Parana, losses for the soybean crop were as high as 95% with many fields not even harvested. Some farmers were forced to harvest the poorest fields so they could make a claim under their crop insurance.

Rio Grande do Sul - Farmers in the state had harvested 9% of their soybeans as of late last week compared to 6% last year and 14% average according to Emater. This represented an advance of 3% for the week. Wet weather slowed the soybean harvest last week.

Goias - Farmers in Goias were blessed with probably the best weather this growing season of any major soybean producing state in Brazil. In the municipality of Cristalina in eastern Goias, the soybeans are 75% harvested and yields are in the range of 60 sacks per hectare (53.6 bu/ac), which is about 2 bu/ac better than last year. Farmers who forward contracted some of their soybeans received about R$ 150 per sack (approximately $13.35 per bushel). The current spot price is in the range of R$ 180 to R$ 190 per sack (approximately $16.05 to $16.95 per bushel).

Mato Grosso do Sul - Rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul during the month of February varied from zero to 120 mm (4.8 inches) with the driest areas in the southern part of the state. At the end of February, the Drought Monitor for the state categorized 69 municipalities in various levels of drought. The amount of rainfall during February is critical for soybeans because it is an important pod filling month.

The Soybean Producers Association of Mato Grosso do Sul (Aprosoja/MS) estimates that the average historical soybean yield in the state is approximately 56 sacks per hectare (50.0 bu/ac), but that declined to 50.6 sacks per hectare in 2021/22 (45.2 bu/ac).

Tocantins - Excessive rains in the state of Tocantins is making it difficult for farmers to finish harvesting their soybeans. The statewide soybean yield is expected to be 52-53 sacks per hectare (46.4 to 47.3 bu/ac), but the quality of the soybeans may be impacted if wet weather continues to slow the harvest.

Another problem in the state is damage to the roads, bridges, and even rail lines caused by the heavy rains. Local grain elevators are full because they are having trouble moving out grain due to the logistical problems. As a result, they may not have space for additional soybeans when the harvest resumes.