Apr 07, 2022

Summer Rains May End Earlier-Than-Normal in Central Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The transition to the annual dry season seems to be gaining in intensity in central Brazil, especially in the states of Goias, Minas Gerais, and parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Daytime temperatures are in the range of 30°C to 34°C (86°F to 93°F) with a relative humidity of 25% to 30%. The soils of central Brazil do not hold water very well, so the combination of low rainfall, low relative humidity, and bright sunshine can result in a quick drying of the soil.

The rainfall in the region started to decline during the second half of March and the forecast from the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) indicates that only far northern and far southern Brazil will receive any significant rainfall during the month of April. The summer rainy season in central Brazil usually ends sometime in early May, so it unusually early for the summer rains to diminish during the second half of March.

The crop that could be impacted the most by the onset of dry weather is the safrinha corn. Currently, 30-40% of Brazil's 2021/22 safrinha corn is in the area that is drying out and that percentage could increase going forward.

April is an important month for safrinha corn pollination and May is an important month for grain filling. The water demand of the plants is very high during these two periods and moisture stresses can develop quickly. Maximum safrinha corn yields in central Brazil usually occur when there is adequate soil moisture through the month of May.