Apr 13, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Safrinha Corn OK Now, Dryness Worries

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The condition of the safrinha corn is OK for now, but there are warning signs on the horizon. Some areas of east-central Brazil such as eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais, have not received rain for up to 25 days and there is not much rain in the forecast. The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is forecasting below normal rainfall for April-May-June for most of southern Brazil.

Currently, about 33% of the safrinha corn is under some level of moisture stress and if Inmet's forecast verifies, that percentage is going to increase. The near-term forecast is calling for limited rainfall across the central safrinha corn belt with temperatures in the 90's °F. Mostly dry weather next week will increase dryness again.

Additionally, there have already been frosts in Argentina and at the higher elevations of southern Brazil, so there is a potential for frost before the safrinha corn in southern Brazil has a chance to mature. Any frost in southern Brazil before the end of June could negatively impact the safrinha corn production.

If you just looked at the current condition of the safrinha corn, you would say that the conditions are good enough to justify an estimate larger than 112.0 million tons. But, with the warning signs on the horizon, I decided to be prudent and leave the corn estimate unchanged for the time being.

Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimated that farmers in the state planted 6.3 million hectares of safrinha corn (15.5 million acres) which was an increase of 7.8% compared to last year. Imea estimated that 87.6% of the safrinha corn was planted during the ideal planting window and the state yield will average 107.3 sacks per hectare (102.3 bu/ac), which is up 15.8% compared to last year. The total corn production in the state is estimated at 40.5 million tons.

Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was 99% planted as of late last week and the corn as 2% germinating, 69% in vegetative development, 21% filling grain, and 0% mature. The corn was rated 4% average and 96% good.

Mato Grosso do Sul - In the municipality of Sao Gabriel do Oeste in north-central Mato Grosso do Sul, more than 90% of the safrinha corn was planted within the ideal planting window, which closed February 28th, but the municipality has now gone 25 days without a rain and the corn needs additional moisture. The safrinha corn harvest in the municipality will start sometime during the second half of May.

In their April report, Conab increased Brazil's corn production by 3.26 million tons to 115.6 million which is up 32.7% or 28.5 million tons from last year's production of 87.0 million tons. The first corn crop is estimated at 24.8 million tons, which is up 0.5 million from last month. The safrinha corn is estimated at 88.5 million tons, which is up 2.3 million tons from last month and the third corn crop is estimated at 2.1 million tons, which is up 0.3 million from last month.