Apr 19, 2022

Dryness and Potential Frost Could Impact 2021/22 Safrinha Corn

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall over the weekend favored far northern safrinha corn areas in Brazil including northern Mato Grosso, northern Goias, Tocantins, and Bahia. Dry conditions remain extensive across central and southern Mato Grosso, southern Goias, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, and southwestern Minas Gerais. Dry weather is expected across most of the safrinha corn belt for the next week.

Even though some other analysts have increased their Brazilian corn estimates, I have kept my Brazilian corn estimate unchanged this week because I am concerned about two things - increasing dryness in central Brazil and the potential for frosts in southern Brazil.

Dry conditions have been spreading in central Brazil since the second half of March. The area of concern includes eastern Mato Grosso, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Minas Gerais, western Bahia, and Sao Paulo. Many areas have been dry for 20-30 days with some areas dry for up to two months. Currently, about 30-40% of the safrinha corn is under some level of moisture stress and there is limited rainfall in the forecast.

The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) has confirmed that the dry season has started in central Brazil and that cold fronts in southern Brazil will become more frequent with increased chances of frosts.

There were frosts again over the weekend in parts of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. These frosts have not impacted the safrinha corn, at least not yet, but if this pattern of frosts persists, they could eventually impact the safrinha corn.

Mato Grosso - Most of the safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is in relatively good condition except for the eastern part of the state which has been in a dryer pattern for the last several weeks.

Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana is 57% in vegetative development, 32% pollinating, 10% filling grain, and the crop is rated 3% average and 97% good.

Brazil's first corn crop - The first corn crop was 87.5% harvested as of late last week compared to 87.2% last year and 84.8% average. This represents an advance of 5% for the week. The weather improved in southern Brazil starting in late February and early March which helped the late planted corn