Apr 21, 2022

Dryness Worries Corn Producers in Central Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Corn producers in central Brazil are becoming more concerned about their corn production due to an early onset of the annual dry season. In many areas of central Brazil, there has not been a significant rainfall for over 15 days and there is very little rainfall in the forecast. In the driest areas, the last rain was 3-4 weeks ago. In fact, the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) has confirmed that the summer rainy season in central Brazil has ended and the annual dry season has started. The dry season is starting 2-4 weeks earlier than normal this year.

According to the vice president of the Soybean and Corn Producers Association of Mato Grosso (Aprosoja-MT), the early onset of dry weather could negatively impact the safrinha corn in the state that is now entering its reproductive stage, which increases the crop's demand for water. He indicated that the corn would need a minimum of two more significant rains during grain filling to insure good yields.

The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso had generally been in good condition up until this point except for the southern part of the state where planting was delayed. At this time, it is not possible to quantify any losses because the crop is early in its reproductive phase, but the longer it stays dry, the greater the potential losses.

The forecast from Inmet indicates the potential for rain only in far southern Brazil and far northern Brazil. Cold fronts moving north out of Argentina are not expected to have enough force to generate rainfall in central Brazil. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated little chance of significant rainfall in central Brazil over the coming weeks.

While the safrinha corn in central Brazil needs additional moisture, the safrinha corn in south-central Brazil, including Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul, continue to receive good rains. The southern areas account for 30-40% of the safrinha corn while central Brazil accounts for 50-60% of Brazil's safrinha corn.