Apr 28, 2022

Safrinha Corn in Mato Grosso Impacted by Driest April in 17 Years

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Mato Grosso is the largest corn producing state in Brazil and virtually all the corn in the state is produced as a safrinha crop after soybeans. The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is planted in January and February and generally harvested in June and July.

Recent data released by the weather service EarthDaily Agro indicate that the state will end the month of April with the least rainfall for the month in 17 years. April rainfall for the state will average approximately 30 mm (1.2 inches), which is down 70% compared to the average over the last decade.

Rainfall amounts across the state during the safrinha growing season have been variable with the most rainfall across the northern and northwestern part of the state and the least rainfall across the southern part of the state. In the municipalities such as Lucas do Rio Verde and Sorriso in central Mato Grosso, they have received 19 mm thus far in April (0.7 inches) compared to an average for the month of 98 mm (3.9 inches). Some of the municipalities in the state have not received any rainfall in over a month.

It is hard to quantify potential corn loses in the state due to variability of the rainfall. In the municipality of Canarana in eastern Mato Grosso for example, approximately 50% of the corn already has a good yield potential locked in, 30% of the corn will need an additional one or two significant rains to achieve its yield potential, and 20% of the corn will continue to need additional rainfall throughout the month of May to achieve its yield potential.

The dryness in central Brazil also extends into the neighboring state of Goias. Rainfall during April in Goias is expected to be 12.5 mm (0.5 inches) compared to the average of 80 mm (3.2 inches).

In their April Crop Report, Conab estimated that Mato Grosso would produce 40.1 million tons of safrinha corn and Goias would produce 10.5 million tons. Combined, these two states would produce 50.6 million tons or 57% of Brazil's total safrinha corn production estimated at 88.5 million tons. Conab is estimating Brazil's total corn production in 2021/22 at 115.6 million tons.