May 03, 2022
2022 U.S. Planting Pace - Corn 14% and Soybeans 8%
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Weather - Rainfall over the weekend favored north central and northeastern Plains, Midwest, and the southern Delta with the heaviest amounts in eastern North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, north central Nebraska, western Missouri, and Minnesota. Wet weather in the central and southern Midwest this week will maintain slow planting progress and cool temperatures will slow soil drying and plant emergence.
2022 U.S. Corn Planting - The 2022 U.S. corn is 14% planted compared to 42% last year and 33% average. Corn emergence is 3% compared to 7% last year and 6% average. Corn planting slipped further behind average last week and planting progress will probably be limited again this week. The growing season starts when the corn emerges and emergence will be slow this week due to cool temperatures.
Planting is most advanced in the western Corn Belt and furthest behind in the northwestern Corn Belt and the eastern Corn Belt. The corn in Iowa is 9% planted (42% average), Minnesota is 0% (28% average), Nebraska is 28% (34% average), Kansas 35% (36% average), North Dakota 0% (5% average), Illinois is 7% (43% average), Indiana is 6% (25% average), Ohio is 3% (16% average), and Michigan 1% (10% average).
2022 U.S. Corn Acreage and Yield - The market is telling farmers to plant more corn, but Mother Nature is not cooperating. Heavy rains over the weekend in the northwestern Corn Belt will keep farmers out of the field for at least two weeks maybe longer is they get more rain. The rain also filled up the potholes and they will not dry out for a long time, if ever.
I anticipated that U.S. farmers would plant 90.5 million acres of corn this year (one million more than the March Prospective Planting), but my confidence in that number is slipping. The corn planting season still has a month to go and farmers will continue to plant corn later than normal this year due to the strong price, so the eventual corn acreage is yet to be determined.
If the U.S. weather improves starting next week and it remains good for the remainder of May, then farmers may end up planting 90.5 million acres. Conversely, if the current cool and wet pattern persists, then we would probably fall short of that mark.
There are reports of farmers planting their soybeans first before the corn because they feel that soybeans can withstand cool soil temperatures better than corn. This makes sense because if the soybean plant population ends up being less than desired due to poor germination, the soybean crop could still end up with a normal yield if the weather cooperates later in the summer. If the corn plant population ends up being less than desired due to poor germination, there is little chance the corn crop will end up with a normal yield.
The 2022 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 178.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward. We just need to wait a little longer to see if approximately 80% of the corn will be planted by about May 20th. In the next week or two, if it looks like we will not hit that figure, I will start to trim the expected 2022 U.S. corn yield.
2022 U.S. Soybean Planting - The 2022 U.S. soybeans are 8% planted compared to 22% last year and 13% average.
2022 U.S. Soybean Acreage and Yield - The eventual soybean acreage is going to be directly related to what happens with corn planting in the northwestern Corn Belt and in the Delta and the mid-South. If it gets too late to plant corn in those areas due to wet conditions, then farmers would likely switch to soybeans. A switch to soybeans could also occur in the spring wheat area of the northwestern Corn Belt.
I anticipated that U.S. farmers would plant 91.0 million acres of soybeans (unchanged from the March Prospective Planting) and I will stay with that estimate until we get a better idea what may happen with the eventual corn acreage. The 2022 U.S. soybean acreage could end up either above or below that estimate, time will tell.
The estimated 2022 U.S. soybean yield is unchanged at 51.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward. The soybean planting would have to be delayed into early June before I would consider lowering the anticipated soybean yield.
2022 U.S. Soil Moisture - It is easy to anticipate where planting delays will persist by looking at the percent of the topsoil rated surplus. The percent of the topsoil rated surplus for the major states is Illinois 40%, Michigan 38%, Indiana 30%, Ohio 30%, Minnesota 29%, Missouri 27%, North Dakota 26%, Kentucky 17%, Iowa 16%, Tennessee 10%, South Dakota 9%, Nebraska 2%, Kansas 1%.