May 11, 2022

2021/22 Brazil Safrinha Corn Continues Dry

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Last week was another dry week in central Brazil and there is not much rain in the forecast. For the safrinha corn in central Brazil, the only chance for rain this week is in the far eastern areas and far northern areas. The forecast is calling for the possibility of only localized light showers next week in Mato Grosso.

Temperatures in central Brazil are expected to moderate this week as a cold front moves north. In fact, there were more frosts over the weekend in the higher elevations of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. It did not impact the safrinha corn, but this is already the fourth episode of frosts in southern Brazil and at some point in the future, the frosts may be widespread enough to impact the safrinha corn. In the meantime, southern Brazil continues to receive adequate to surplus rainfall.

Dry weather continues to impact particularly the later planted safrinha corn. Some of the corn has not received a rain since before pollination and there may not be any more rain this growing season. I lowered the corn estimate 5.0 million tons last week, and if the current weather pattern persists, I am anticipating that the corn estimate will move lower in future reports.

The most significant corn losses are expected to be in Goias. Losses are also expected for the late planted corn in Mato Grosso and the corn in Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and northern Mato Grosso do Sul. The safrinha corn in Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul is in good condition, but there is still the potential for frosts in those areas.

The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) said on Monday, May 9th, that their models indicate the potential for frost next week for all of southern Brazil including Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais. They also indicated that it was too early to judge the intensity of the potential frost.

Imea Lowers Mato Grosso's Safrinha Corn Production - In their eighth assessment of the corn crop in Mato Grosso, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) lowered their estimate of the 2021/22 safrinha corn production. They cited dry weather during the month of April as the reason for the lower estimate. Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil responsible for approximately 45% of Brazil's safrinha corn production.

Imea is now estimating the statewide safrinha corn yield at 103.8 sacks per hectare (99.0 bu/ac) which is down 3.2% from their last estimate. The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 6.31 million hectares (15.5 million acres) which is up 8.1% compared to last year. The total corn production in the state is estimated at 39.3 million tons, which is down 2.9% compared to last month, but still up 20.8% compared to last year.

An estimated 82% of the safrinha corn was planted within the ideal planting window and the early planted corn is expected to have the highest yields. The later planted corn has been impacted more by the dry weather and is expected to have the lowest yields. The biggest impact of dry weather has been in the south-central and western regions of the state.

Rating of Safrinha Corn in Parana Declines Due to Storm Damage - The Department of Rural Economics for the state of Parana (Deral) lowered their rating of the safrinha corn crop in the state. As of earlier this week, the corn was rated 2% poor, 10% average and 88% good.

Recent severe storms in the western and southwestern parts of the state were responsible for the lower ratings. In the areas hit hardest by the storms, the safrinha corn is 100% loss. Outside of the storm damage areas, the weather continues to be beneficial for corn development.

The safrinha corn in the state is 15% in vegetative development, 41% pollinating, 41% filling grain, and 3% mature. Parana is the second largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso and responsible for approximately 17% of Brazil safrinha corn production.

Deral is estimating the production at approximately 16 million tons which is nearly three times more than the 5.7 million tons produced last year. The 2021/21 safrinha corn crop was impacted by drought and a series of early freezes which ended the growing season before the corn matured. Last year at this time, the corn was rated 27% poor, 45% average, and 28% good.

Goias - The state of Goias has some of the driest conditions in central Brazil with very little rain in the forecast. Goias only received about 0.5 inches of rainfall during the month of April and the forecast is very worrisome. Safrinha corn yields are declining every week that it stays dry.

Mato Grosso do Sul - The Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul indicated that much of the safrinha corn in the state was pollinating or in early grain development and susceptible to severe losses if additional rain is not received soon.