May 12, 2022

Frost/Freeze Warning for Safrinha Corn in Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) has issued a frost/freeze alert for next week in southern Brazil. The intense cold air should start arriving in southern Brazil on May 15th and 16th with the lowest temperatures occurring on May 19th. This is very early in Brazil's "winter season" for temperatures this low and metrologists are attributing the cold weather to a continued La Nina in the Pacific Ocean.

A frost/freeze is possible in the safrinha corn areas of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Sao Paulo, and Paraguay. The frost could also impact coffee, oranges, and horticultural crops in southern Minas Gerais. Temperatures are expected to plummet in western Minas Gerais and southern Goias as wells. Currently, frosts are not expected in those areas, but the forecast could change.

Safrinha corn estimates have already been declining due to the dry conditions, if the forecast for frost/freeze verifies, there could be further reductions to the safrinha corn estimates. The summer rainy season ended early this year in central Brazil with some of the safrinha corn receiving their last rain 30-40-50 days ago. Normally, the last rain occurs sometime in early May, but this year, the last rains occurred in late March.

La Nina is entering into its third year and farmers in Brazil are already expressing concerns for the 2022/23 corn and soybean crops in Brazil, which farmers will start planting the second half of August. La Nina induced droughts have plagued southern Brazil for the last two growing seasons and farmers can ill afford three years in a row.