May 13, 2022

Conab Increases Brazil's Soy and Corn Estimates in May Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their May Crop Report, Conab increased their estimate for Brazil's 2021/22 soybean crop by 1.4 million tons from 122.4 million to 123.8 million tons. For Brazil's corn production, Conab increased it 0.6 million tons from 115.6 million to 116.2 million tons.

Brazil's 2021/22 soybean acreage was increased slightly from last month to 40.9 million hectares (101.0 million acres), which represents an increase of 4.4% compared to last year. Brazil's soybean yield is now estimated at 3,026 kg/ha (45.0 bu/ac), which is up 0.3 bu/ac from last month but still down 14.1% compared to last year. Brazil's soybean production at 123.8 million tons represents a reduction of 10.4% from last year's production of 138.1 million tons.

Brazil's 2021/22 corn production was increased 0.6 million tons this month to 116.19 due to primarily an increase in the safrinha corn acreage. The safrinha corn acreage in May was estimated at 16.6 million hectares (41.0 million acres) which was up 0.56 million hectares (1.3 million acres) from April. The safrinha corn yield declined in May to 5,379 kg/ha (85.5 bu/ac) compared to 5,518 kg/ha (87.7 bu/ac) in April.

The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is forecasting the possibility of record cold temperatures next week in southern Brazil with widespread frosts and freezes. An initial cold front

will move into southern Brazil over the weekend with a reinforcing wave of cold air arriving early next week.

If the forecast verifies, it could negatively impact the safrinha corn in Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern Sao Paulo. It could also impact coffee, oranges, and horticultural crops in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo.