May 18, 2022
2022 U.S. Corn Acreage 90.0 Million Acres, Could Decline
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
While we wait for the June Planted Report to be released on June 30th, there will continue to be widespread speculation concerning the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean acreage. In the March Prospective Planting Report, the USDA estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 89.5 million acres of corn and 91.0 million acres of soybeans in 2022.
In the March Prospective Planting Report, the USDA estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 89.5 million acres of corn. At the time, I thought that it was an overly conservative estimate because the market was telling farmers to plant more corn. Now with 49% of the corn planted as of Sunday, May 15th, that estimate may end up being closer to reality than what we thought.
Currently, I am estimating that farmers will plant 90.0 million acres of corn and harvest 82.0 million acres (91.2% of harvested), but the final planted acreage will be determined by the weather in the northwestern Corn Belt where it is possible that farmers may switch some of their corn to soybeans, or in a worse-case scenario, take prevent planting on some of their corn. The states to watch are North Dakota where 4% of the corn is planted (41% average), South Dakota is 31% planted (54% average), and Minnesota is 35% planted (72% average).
Before the WASDE report was issued, I had lowered the 2022 U.S. corn yield to 177.0 bu/ac, so I agree with their corn yield estimate of 177.0 bu/ac. That was an aggressive move on their part and I think it could set the tone for the summer. If the USDA was willing to lower the corn yield 4 bu/ac from their trend line of 181.0 bu/ac due to delayed planting, it may be difficult for them to increase the corn yield in the future unless the weather during the growing season is extremely beneficial for the corn.
Currently, I am estimating the 2022 U.S. corn acreage at 90.0 million acres with a neutral to lower bias and that 82.0 million acres will be harvested, also with a neutral to lower bias. The corn yield is estimated at 177.0 bu/ac with a neutral to lower bias and the total production is estimated at 14.52 billion bushels, also with a neutral to lower bias.