May 18, 2022

2022 U.S. Soybean Acreage 91.0 Million Acres, Could Increase

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In the March Prospective Planting Report, the USDA estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 91.0 million acres of soybeans. At the time, I thought the estimate was overly optimistic because the market seemed to be telling farmers to plant corn. Now that the corn planting has been delayed especially in the northwestern Corn Belt, that estimate may be close to reality.

Currently, I am estimating that farmers will plant 91.0 million acres of soybeans and harvest 90.1 million (99% of planted), and I have a neutral to higher bias for both estimates. The final soybean acreage will probably be determined by the weather in the northwestern Corn Belt. Farmers may switch some of their corn to soybeans and then keep trying to plant soybeans as late as possible. At this point, I do not foresee a significant amount of soybean acres going to prevent plant.

The USDA left the soybean yield at 51.5 bu/ac which I think is an accurate estimate. I would not consider adjusting the soybean yield unless the soybean planting is significantly delayed into sometime in June.

Currently, I am estimating the soybean acreage at 91.0 million acres with 90.1 million acres harvested and I have a neutral to higher bias for both. The soybean yield is estimated at 51.5 bu/ac with a neutral bias and the total production is estimated at 4.64 billion bushels with a neutral to higher bias.