Jun 08, 2022
2022 U.S. Corn 78% Emerged, 73% Good/Excellent
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The corn is 78% planted with the remaining areas to plant in the northwestern Corn Belt. The final corn planting date for full crop insurance has passed and there are 684,000 acres of corn left to plant in North Dakota, 546,000 acres in Minnesota not planted, and 434,000 acres of corn in South Dakota not planted. It is probably too late to plant corn in North Dakota, so those unplanted corn acres will probably be planted to another crop, most likely soybeans, or taken as prevent plant. It is not as clear if farmers in South Dakota and Minnesota will continue to try planting corn or switch to another option.
My current estimate for the 2022 U.S. corn acreage is 89.0 million acres with a lower bias, but given the current estimates in the market, my confidence level in that estimate is low. The corn planting pace accelerated during the second half of May which may have allowed some farmers to plant more corn than they had originally intended.
The first half of June is forecasted to be cooler-than-normal and the cool weather could slow the emergence and development of the later planted corn. Cool weather will help to push back pollination further into July when higher temperatures are possible and they could also increase the risk of frost before the corn is mature. The cool temperatures could also slow soil drying in areas of excess moisture.
The corn yield estimated is 177.0 bu/ac, which is the same as the USDA. The USDA lowered the corn yield 4 bu/ac in the May WASDE Report, which was an aggressive move on their part. They indicated that the lower yield was due to the delayed corn planting. The first half of the corn planting was delayed while the second half of the corn planting was about average. The corn production is estimated at 14.35 billion bushels also with a lower bias.
June Planted Report - Whenever there are planting delays due to wet weather, the June Planted Report may still include intensions instead of what was actually planted. That may happen again this year in the northwestern Corn Belt, especially in the state of North Dakota. It is possible the USDA will conduct a special acreage survey in North Dakota if they feel planting has been significantly delayed.