Jul 06, 2022
2021/22 Brazil Corn Production Increased 2.0 mt to 112.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2021/22 Brazil corn estimate was increased 2.0 million tons this week to 112.0 million tons and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.
Brazilian farmers continue to report variable safrinha corn yields due to irregular rainfall and pest pressures, but the harvest has passed the halfway mark in the big producing state of Mato Grosso and good yields in central Mato Grosso are compensating for lower yields in other parts of the state. Therefore, Brazil's corn estimate was increased 2.0 million tons this week and it might move a little higher by the time the harvesting is complete.
The safrinha corn harvest in Brazil is 31% complete as of late last week compared to 12% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 10% for the week. Mato Grosso leads the way with 55% harvested. Harvesting remains slow in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul due to rainfall, cool temperatures, and high grain moisture.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso was 55.5% complete as of late last week compared to 22.4% last year and 38.8% average. This represents an advance of 19.7% for the week. The most advanced region is the mid-north where 67% of the corn has been harvested. The slowest region is the southeast where 31% has been harvested.
In the municipality of Lucas do Rio Verde in south-central Mato Grosso, the safrinha corn harvest is 70% complete and yields are in the range of 130 to 150 sacks per hectare (124 to 143 bu/ac). The weather was ideal during the growing season with limited insect and disease pressure.
Corn prices in Mato Grosso have declined from R$ 70 per sack (approximately $6.25 per bushel) before the harvest began to the current R$ 60 per sack (approximately $5.35 per bushel).
The rapid harvest pace is leading to logistical challenges since many grain silos are still full of soybeans as farmers wait for improved prices to sell their soybeans. Imea estimates that farmers still have 8.5 million tons of soybeans left to sell. Farmers in the state have sold 78% of their 2021/22 soybean production compared to 88% last year at this time.
A lot of grain elevators are temporarily storing the corn in open-air piles. This is a common practice in Mato Grosso since it is now the dry season and very little if any rain is expected before sometime in September. Farmers have sold 61% of their anticipated corn production compared to 77% last year.
Below is the safrinha corn harvest pace (red line) from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was 45% filling grain, 55% mature, and 6% harvested as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The corn was rated 7% poor, 21% average, and 72% good. In their latest assessment, Deral lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn production by 0.55 million tons to 15.44 million compared to their last estimate of 16.00 million. Farmers in the state have only sold 6.1% of their anticipated safrinha corn production.
The initial safrinha corn harvest has been slowed due to high grain moisture especially in the west, center-west, and southeastern regions of the state. Reports from those regions along with the southern region of the state, indicate that the early corn yields are below expectations due mainly to a severe attack of corn leafhoppers.
In the northern part of the state, the weather was better during the growing season and there were fewer corn leafhoppers, so the yields and grain quality are within expectations.
In the municipality of Campo Mourao in western Parana, they have harvested 2% of the corn with average yields expected to be 100 sacks per hectare (95.4 bu/ac). The corn encountered some problems with light frosts and corn leafhoppers, but it survived largely intact. Farmers should be able to turn a profit on their 2021/22 safrinha corn after a disappointing 2021/22 soybean crop and a disastrous 2020/21 safrinha corn crop.
Mato Grosso do Sul - The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul was 3% as of earlier last week according to the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul). Famasul rated the crop at 6.4% poor, 12.8% average, and 80.8% good. They estimated that the 2021/22 safrinha corn acreage declined 12.6% to 1.99 million hectares (4.9 million acres) and that the yield will be 78 sacks per hectare (74.4 bu/ac) resulting in a production of 9.3 million tons. Currently, 26% of the anticipated corn production has been sold compared to 42% last year. Corn prices are in the range of R$ 70 to R$ 80 per sack (approximately $6.25 to $7.15 per bushel).
Some estimates of the Brazilian 2021/22 corn production have moved higher in recent days and some have moved lower. StoneX increased their estimate of the 2021/22 Brazil corn production to 119.3 million tons compared to their previous estimate of 116.8 million tons. They increased Brazil's 2022 corn exports by 1.0 million tons to 41.0 million and most of the corn will be exported starting in July/August. From January through May of this year, Brazil exported 5.0 million tons of corn. Last year, Brazil exported 20.9 million tons of corn.
Datagro increased their estimate of the 2021/22 Brazil corn production to 116.1 million tons compared to the previous estimate of 114.3 million tons.
In contrast, Safras & Mercado lowered their estimate of the 2021/22 Brazil corn production to 117.2 million tons compared to their previous estimate of 118.1 million tons. They lowered the estimate due to dry weather in central Brazil resulting in lower yields.