Jul 11, 2022

Conab Estimates That Brazil Will Plant the Most Wheat in 32 Years.

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their July Crop Report, Conab estimated that Brazilian farmers would plant 2.9 million hectares of winter wheat (7.1 million acres), which is an increase of 6.6% compared to 2021, which was already a record. If verified, it would be the most wheat planted in Brazil in 32 years, only surpassed by the 3.28 million hectares planted in 1990 (8.1 million acres).

Brazil is expected to produce a record 9 million tons of wheat in 2022 or an increase of 17.6% compared to last year. Wheat yields in 2022 are expected to increase 10.3% to 3,000 kg/ha (44.7 bu/ac). As a comparison, the wheat yield in 1990 was 1,000 kg/ha (16 bu/ac).

The states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are the two largest wheat producing states in Brazil responsible for approximately 90% of Brazil's wheat production. The wheat in the state of Parana was 96% planted as of earlier last week and the crop was rated 3% average and 97% good according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The wheat in the state of Rio Grande do Sul was 80% planted as of late last week according to Emater/RS and the crop was generally in good condition.

The motivation for the acreage increase was strong international wheat prices resulting from the war in Ukraine. Despite the increase in production, Brazil is still expected to import 6.5 million tons of wheat in 2022/23 with most of the wheat coming from neighboring Argentina.