Aug 10, 2022

2022 U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 174.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 174.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward. I decided to leave the corn yield unchanged this week due to the rainfall over the weekend, the potential for more rain this week, and the fact that we will get the August Crop Report on Friday.

The condition of the 2022 U.S. corn crop declined 3% last week to 58% rated good/excellent. The corn is 90% silking compared to 94% last year and 93% average. The corn is 45% dough compared to 53% last year and 49% average and the corn is 6% dent compared to 7% last year and 9% average.

The heaviest rainfall over the weekend extended from eastern South Dakota across southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and northern Illinois. Dryness remains across the western and southwestern Midwest including central and southern Iowa. The weather in the eastern Corn Belt was beneficial last week and it should remain beneficial again this week. The forecast is once again turning problematic with hot and dry conditions expected to return to the western areas both short term and long term.

Nighttime temperatures last week were high especially in the western Corn Belt, which is always a concern for corn if they occur during grain fill. Temperatures declined a little in recent days, but higher temperatures are back in the forecast especially in the western areas.

In the August Crop Report which will be released on Friday, the corn yield should either be unchanged or down slightly from prior estimates and the corn planted acreage may be down slightly due to the resurvey of the planted acreage in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

The final corn harvested acreage could end up being below whatever is reported in the August Crop Report. There are reports from the dryer areas of the western Corn Belt that more corn is being harvested for silage than in a normal year due the reduced volume of vegetative matter. In some cases, the silage harvest is as much as a month earlier than normal because the longer they wait to chop the silage, the worse it will become. Dairy farmers must fill their silos regardless of how many acres of corn it may take, so they may have less corn available for grain harvest. Additionally, there may be some corn acres abandoned due to droughty conditions.

The USDA is currently estimating that 91.1% of the planted corn acreage will be harvested for grain, but that may end up being too high. It might be more in the range of 90.1% harvested for grain. I don't think the USDA will factor this into the harvested acreage for the August Crop Report, but let's wait and see.