Aug 18, 2022

2022 U.S. Soybean Yield Unchanged at 50.5 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 50.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral to maybe a slightly lower bias going forward.

The USDA lowered the harvested acreage 300,000 acres, but that was all due the planted acreage being lowered 300,000 acres. For now, I am going to use the USDA's harvested acreage because it is too early to speculate if there will be additional abandonment over and above the 1% already being used.

The USDA increased the soybean yield 0.4 bu/ac to 51.9 bu/ac, which seems a little aggressive. Some of the farmer surveys could have been as much as two weeks old by the time we got the report last Friday. In that intervening period, it was basically dry in most of the western Corn Belt, so I think the crop has declined since the survey was conducted.

Cooler temperatures and chances of rain are in the forecast for much of the Corn Belt for the next 1-2 weeks which should be beneficial for pod filling. Therefore, I left the soybean yield unchanged while we wait to see the extent of the rainfall coverage.

The condition of the 2022 U.S. soybean crop declined 1% last week to 58% rated good/excellent. The soybeans were 93% blooming compared to 94% last year and 93% average. The soybeans were 74% setting pods compared to 80% last year and 77% average.