Aug 30, 2022

Brazil Weather Service Issues Worrisome Forecast for Sep-Oct-Nov

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) issued their forecast for September-October-November last week and it is worrisome. If verified, it would be the third year in a row with less-than-ideal weather across southern Brazil due to La Nina.

Inmet indicated a gradual return of the summer rains in September and October, but they issued an alert for below normal rainfall in southern Brazil during the early and mid-growing season especially during October and November. The forecast for central and northern Brazil is more positive with normal to above normal rainfall.

Inmet attributes the potential adverse weather in southern Brazil to the continuing La Nina which generally results in hotter and dryer than normal conditions during the early growing season in southern Brazil. In central and northern Brazil, a La Nina usually correlates with average or better-than-average conditions.

La Nina has been in place in Brazil for the last two growing seasons and the results have been disappointing. Two years ago, the safrinha corn was impacted by delayed planting, dry weather, and early frosts. Last year the first corn crop and soybeans in southern Brazil were impacted by dry weather. It is difficult to predict which crop might be impacted and by how much, but as long as La Nina is present, it increases the unpredictability of the weather during the growing season.

The rainfall forecast for southern Brazil is OK for September, but it gets dryer in October and even dryer in November. If this forecast verifies, the troubling pattern is that it could get dryer as they approach the end of the year instead of the normal pattern of getting wetter as the year ends. A weather pattern such as this could be worrisome for the first corn crop and for the soybeans as well.