Sep 09, 2022

Conab Lowers Brazil's 2021/22 Corn Estimate 1.4 mt to 113.2 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their September Crop Report, Conab lowered the 2021/22 Brazilian corn production 1.42 million tons to 113.27 million. The majority of the decline came from a smaller safrinha corn crop with a slightly smaller third corn crop. Safrinha corn yields were lowered this month due to dry weather.

The safrinha corn acreage remained unchanged from the prior month at 15.37 million hectares (40.4 million acres). The safrinha corn yield was lowered to 5,258 kg/ha (83.6 bu/ac) which is down 1.3 bu/ac from last month's estimate of 5,339 kg/ha (84.9 bu/ac). The safrinha corn production is now estimated at 86.12 million tons, down 1.28 million from last month's estimate of 87.40 million.

Safrinha corn yields declined steadily as the harvest progressed. The highest yields were from the earlier planted corn that made it through its reproductive phase before the rains ended in late March and early April. The later planted corn encountered dry conditions for most of its lifecycle resulting in low yields especially in the states of Goias, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais.

Additionally, the later planted safrinha corn was impacted by a severe infestation of corn leafhoppers. The pest by itself does not do much harm to the corn plant, but it infects the corn plant with a virus that caused stunting which can cause significant yield losses. Brazilian farmers are urged to pay close attention to the control of corn leafhoppers in their 2022/23 corn production.

Brazil's third corn crop production was trimmed 0.13 million tons to 2.17 million while the first corn crop production was left unchanged.

The first corn crop ended with a production of 24.97 million tons or 22% of Brazil total corn production. The safrinha corn ended with a production of 86.12 million tons or 76% of Brazil's total corn production and the third corn crop ended with a production of 2.17 million tons or 2% of Brazil's total corn production.

Conab estimated Brazil's domestic corn consumption at 76.5 million tons and corn exports at 37.0 million tons.

Brazilian farmers are currently planting their 2022/23 first corn crop with an estimated 9% of the corn planted as of late last week according to AgRural.