Oct 05, 2022

2022/23 Argentina Corn 5.8% Planted vs. 16.8% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022/23 planting season in Argentina is getting off to a problematic start. The situation in Argentina is not as favorable as Brazil. Argentina had a dry summer, fall, and winter and the situation has not improved very much. Scattered rains fell this past week across sections of western Argentina while eastern areas remained mostly dry. The largest soil moisture deficits are in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios. The moisture shortage is stressing the winter wheat and the germination of the early planted corn.

Unfortunately, the rainfall over the next 10 days is forecasted to be below normal across most of Argentina, which will lead to further moisture deficits. Only a few scattered showers are forecasted for this week, but amounts will be too light to hamper fieldwork or significantly improve moisture for germination. Temperatures over the next ten days are expected to be normal.

The corn in Argentina was 5.8% planted as of late last week compared to 16.8% last year and no soybeans have been planted. This is a slow start to corn planting and if the dry conditions persist, it is possible that farmers in Argentina may end up switching some of their intended corn acreage to soybeans instead.

Any switch from corn to soybeans would occur in the first phase of corn planting which starts in September and ends about the end of October. During this first phase, farmers generally plant about 40% to 45% of their corn acreage.

The second phase of corn planting starts in December and ends about mid-January and the later planted corn has recorded higher yields the last two years. If the early corn planting continues to be delayed, farmers may opt for less corn and more soybeans. If the soybean acreage increases in Argentina in 2022/23, it would be the first time in seven years.

Analysts in Argentina are already predicting that some of the intended corn acreage may be switched to soybeans instead. The amount of switching being discussed is in the range of 200,000 to 400,000 hectares, but the final number will not be known for several weeks.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that Argentina will plant 7.5 million hectares of corn for grain production in 2022/23 compared to 7.7 million hectares last year, which represents a decline of 2.6%. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates the 2022/23 corn production at 50.0 million tons, which is down from last year's production of 52.0 million tons.