Oct 07, 2022
Brazil's 2022/23 Soybean Production 152.3 mt, Corn 126.9 mt
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In their first monthly evaluation of the 2022/23 crops in Brazil, Conab estimated the 2022/23 soybean crop at 152.3 million tons compared to last year's crop of 125.5 million tons. For corn, Conab estimated the 2022/23 crop at 126.9 million tons compared to last year's crop of 112.8 million tons.
Brazilian farmers are expected to plant 42.89 million hectares of soybeans in 2022/23 (105.9 million acres), which represents an increase of 3.4% compared to 2021/22. The increase is coming from the conversion of degraded pastures to row crops, switching from other crops such as first crop corn to soybeans, and the clearing of new land. The nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,552 kg/ha (52.9 bu/ac), which would represent an increase of 17.4%.
If this estimate of 152.3 million tons is realized, it would represent an increase of 26.8 million tons compared to last year or 21.3%.
Brazil's 2022/23 corn crop is estimated at 126.9 million tons which represents an increase of 14.1 million tons or 12.5% compared to 2021/22. The acreage of the first corn crop is expected to decline by 1.5% due to high production costs, an infestation of corn leafhoppers, and switching to more safrinha corn. The production of the first corn crop is estimated at 28.6 million tons, which is up 3.6 million tons or 14.6%.
The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 17.26 million hectares (42.6 million acres) or an increase of 5.4% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,577 kg/ha (88.6 bu/ac) or an increase of 6.7% and the safrinha corn production is estimated at 96.27 million tons, which is up 10.6 million tons or 12.4% compared to last year.
Brazil's third corn crop is estimated at 1.97 million tons which is down 8.5% compared to last year. The acreage of the third corn crop is unchanged from last year, but the yield estimate is lower due to lower yields compared to last year.
Conab is estimating that the first corn crop would represent 22.5% of Brazil's total corn production, the safrinha corn crop would represent 75.8%, and the third corn crop would represent 1.5%.
The weather during September has generally been favorable for planting with the exception in parts of south-central Brazil where they received excessive rainfall. Temperatures during September have been on the cool side in southern Brazil.
The forecast for October-November-December is calling for below normal rainfall in far southern Brazil due to the third consecutive year of La Nina. Rainfall in central Brazil is expected to be normal to above normal with the potential for below normal rainfall in parts of northern Mato Grosso.