Oct 13, 2022

Brazil's Wheat Crop Could be Negatively Impacted by Wet Weather

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

As of October 1st, the 2022 wheat harvest in Brazil was 22.4% complete compared to 18.7% the prior week and 22.6% last year according to Conab. The recent weather in southern Brazil has turned wet and the forecast is calling for more rain, so the wheat harvest pace is expected to slow.

Heavy rains in the southern state of Parana are jeopardizing the wheat harvest and the wheat quality in the state. Excessive moisture at harvest time is always a concern for wheat producers in the state because the quality of the wheat can deteriorate quickly the longer mature wheat remains in the field.

The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported in their weekly bulletin that the wheat in the state was 42% harvested and that the remainder of the wheat was 1% in vegetative development, 9% flowering, 42% filling grain, and 48% maturing. The wheat is rated 4% poor, 23% average, and 73% good.

Deral estimates the wheat acreage in Parana at 1.18 million hectares (2.91 million acres), which is down 4% from last year's acreage of 1.22 million hectares (3.01 million acres). The yield is estimated at 3,309 kg/ha (49.3 bu/ac) compared to 2,632 kg/ha last year (39.2 bu/ac). The wheat production is estimated at 3.79 million tons, which is up 18% compared to the 3.2 million tons last year.

In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the wheat harvest is 3% complete compared to 3% average. The wheat acreage in the state is estimated at 1.45 million hectares (3.58 million acres), which represents an increase of 18.6% compared to last year. The wheat production in Rio Grande do Sul is estimated at 4.68 million tons. If the farmers in Rio Grande do Sul manage to harvest high quality wheat, some of the wheat will be sold to flower mills in Parana.