Oct 18, 2022
Reaction to U.S. October Crop Report
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Corn - The October Crop Report indicated a U.S. corn yield of 171.9 bu/ac, which was down 0.6 bu/ac from the September report. The harvested acreage was left unchanged at 80.84 million acres and the corn production was estimated at 13.9 billion bushels.
Going into the report, my corn yield estimate was 169.0 bu/ac (2.9 bu/ac below the USDA) with a harvested acreage of 80.5 million acres (300,000 acres below the USDA). My corn production was 13.6 billion bushels (300,000 below the USDA).
They did not lower the corn yield quite as much as I had anticipated, but I think they will trim it a little more in November or January. Therefore, my current corn yield estimate is 170.0 bu/ac. I had anticipated a reduction in the corn harvested acreage, but apparently the USDA felt they had accounted for any increased abandonment in the September report. Going forward, I will use the USDA's harvested acreage of 80.84 million acres.
Soybeans - The October Crop Report indicated a U.S. soybean yield of 49.8 bu/ac, which was down 0.7 bu/ac from the September report. The harvested acreage was left unchanged at 86.6 million acres and the soybean production was estimated at 4.31 billion bushels.
Going into the report, my estimate was 50.0 bu/ac (0.2 bu/ac higher than the USDA) with a harvested acreage of 86.6 million acres (same as the USDA). My soybean production was 4.33 billion bushels (20,000 more than the USDA).
I had anticipated a lower soybean yield due to the dry weather during September especially in the western and southern areas. The double crop soybeans also had a dry finish, but I am not sure the USDA fully accounted for the double crop soybeans in the October report. Therefore, my current soybean yield estimate is 49.6 bu/ac and I am going to use the USDA's harvested acreage of 86.6 million acres.