Nov 22, 2022

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 80% Planted vs. 86% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather in Brazil last week was OK, but pockets of dryness continue to persist in central and far southern Brazil. The near-term forecast is calling for scattered showers, while the longer-term forecast is calling for a dryer pattern in central and southern Brazil. Farmers in both central and southern Brazil are starting to get uneasy about the dryness and they are hoping for a quick return to a wetter pattern. The early planted soybeans in central Brazil are entering their critical reproductive phase, whereas the soybeans in far southern Brazil are still being planted.

Rainfall in Brazil has not improved enough for me to increase the Brazilian soybean estimate, but also the dryness has not been widespread enough for me to lower the estimate either, but I am concerned about the current weather pattern. The soybean production estimate is also being supported by a larger than anticipated soybean acreage.

Brazil's 2022/23 soybeans were 80% planted as of late last week compared to 86% last year and 73% average according to Ag Rural. This represents an advance of 11% for the week. Planting is essentially complete in Mato Grosso except for the northeastern corner of the state, but dry weather in parts of central Brazil such as Goias and Minas Gerais has slowed the planting pace in those two states.

Mato Grosso - The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 98.8% planted as of late last week compared to 99.8% last year and 96.8% average. The last area to complete planting is northeastern Mato Grosso where the soybeans are 94.6% planted. Irregular rains and elevated temperatures are starting to worry farmers in the dryer regions of Mato Grosso (see prior article). Below is the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso (red line) from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).


Parana - The soybean planting in Parana is nearing completion at 97% planted and the soybeans were rated 1% poor, 5% average, and 94% good as of earlier last week. The earliest soybeans in the state are starting to flower and set pods.

Rio Grande do Sul - Farmers in the state had planted 30% of their 2022/23 soybeans as of late last week compared to 49% last year and 46% average according to Emater. This represents an advance of 13% for the week. Low temperatures over the last several weeks delayed the wheat harvest, which in turn delayed the soybean planting. Emater reported that the wheat in Rio Grande do Sul was 52% harvested as of late last week compared to 85% last year and 69% average.

The recent weather in Rio Grande do Sul has turned dryer, but the forecast is calling for increased chances of rainfall early this week before a return of a dryer pattern. Emater is estimating the soybean yield in the state will average 3,131 kg/ha (46.6 bu/ac).

Mato Grosso do Sul - The soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul were 92.5% planted as of late last week. This represents an advance of 10.3% for the week. Planting in the southern part of the state was the most advanced at 94% and the most advanced soybeans in the state are starting to flower.

Statewide, the soybean are rated 5% poor and 95% good, but regional differences are starting to appear. In the northeastern part of the state where it has been dry for 20-25 days, the soybeans are rated 2% poor, 18% average, and 80% good. It has also been dry in the southwestern part of the state where the soybeans are rated 17% average and 83% good.

Goias - The soybeans in Goias were 92% planted as of late last week with dryer weather in the southern part of the state slowing the completion of the soybean planting.

Northeastern Brazil - In northeastern Brazil, the soybeans are generally 60-70% planted which is quite good for this part of Brazil where the summer rains start later. Rainfall has generally been good in northeastern Brazil and there is more rain in the forecast.