Nov 28, 2022
Brazil Corn Exports on Their Way to China
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazilian corn has been authorized for export to China and the first vessel loaded with 68,000 tons of Brazilian corn set sail for China last Wednesday and there will be many more to come. The National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anex) estimates that Brazil's corn exports in 2023 could be in the range of 40 to 50 million tons if the weather cooperates and Brazil produces a good corn crop.
According to the shipping agency Alphamar, three more vessels loaded with Brazilian corn are scheduled to leave for China before the end of November, which would put the November total close to 200,000 tons. A total of six to eight vessels of Brazilian corn could be exported to China by the end of the year. It is estimated that Brazil could export as much as 5 million tons of corn to China in 2023 making Brazil a key supplier alongside the U.S. The USDA estimates that China's corn import demand is 18 million tons for the 2022/23 cycle.
China decided last May to start buying Brazilian corn to reduce their dependence on U.S. supplies of corn and to replace supplies no longer available from Ukraine. Brazil and China quickly agreed upon phytosanitary standards to ramp up corn imports from Brazil and China has approved over 130 facilities for exports.
During 2021, Spain, Egypt, Iran, Japan, and South Korea accounted for 60% of Brazil's corn exports, but that could quickly change with China now anxious to import Brazilian corn. Until now, the U.S. had accounted for approximately 70% of China's corn imports, but Brazil is now going to offer stiff competition in the corn export market.