Dec 07, 2022

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 91% Planted vs. 88% Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall in Brazil last week favored the northern and eastern regions of the country. Over the weekend, more rain in central Brazil led to improved soil moisture, but coverage was still irregular. The forecast for this week is for rain across most of the production areas except for Rio Grande do Sul. Widespread rain is expected in the 6-10 day period. If this forecast verifies, it will lead to improved soil moisture across much of Brazil at a critical time when the soybean yield is being determined.

The 2022/23 Brazil soybeans were 91% planted as of late last week compared to 94% last year and 88.2% average according to AgRural. Good rainfall in northeastern Brazil has accelerated the planting pace in MATOPIBA (Maranhao, Tocantins, Piaui, and Bahia), while farmers in parts of Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil suspended soybean planting due to dry conditions.

Rio Grande do Sul - Current dry weather in the state is causing problems for farmers trying to finish their soybean planting with some farmers waiting for additional moisture before they resume planting. The soybeans in the state are 73% planted compared to 78% average. This represents an advance of 7% for the week. One reason for the slow planting was because the wheat harvest was slowed due to previously cold temperatures and uneven maturity of the wheat. The wheat in the state is 85% harvested compared to 98% last year and 99% average according to Emater.

The earlier planted soybeans are starting to show some moisture stress due to the hot and dry conditions and the most recently planted soybeans are reported to have uneven emergence.

Late planted soybeans in the state could still have normal yields if the weather cooperates for the rest of the growing season. Usually, the soybean planting in the state wraps up toward the end of December. With the soybeans still being planted, the crop is going to need moisture for the next three months to achieve the 22-23 million tons expected.

Mato Grosso - In many of the larger soybean producing municipalities in the state, the rainfall thus far this growing season has been irregular with below average amounts for the period between September 15th and November 30th. Recent temperatures have been as high as 40°C (104°F) and yields are being reduced in some of the hardest hit areas.

The soybean development is being impacted by the pockets of dry conditions and approximately 20-30% of the soybeans in the state need rain. The forecast for this week is calling for rain and it is needed the most in the central and southern regions of the state.

Parana - The soybeans in Parana are 96% planted and the crop is 4% germinating, 82% in vegetative development, 14% flowering, and 1% filling pods. The soybeans are rated 1% poor, 6% average, and 93% good.

Mato Grosso do Sul - The soybean planting is essentially complete in Mato Grosso do Sul where farmers are expected to plant 3.8 million hectares (9.38 million acres). The soybeans are currently rated 4% average and 96% good. Aprosoja/MS is forecasting a statewide yield of 53 sacks per hectare (47.4 bu/ac) with a total production of 12.3 million tons.

Farmers have forward contracted 20% of their anticipated 2022/23 soybean production at an average price of R$ 156.41 per sack (approximately $13.50 per bushel). They sold their 2021/22 crop for an average price of R$ 169.08 per sack (approximately $14.60 per bushel).

Minas Gerais - Dry conditions have resulted in slower-than-average soybean planting in Minas Gerais where 80% of the soybeans have been planted. If the weather turns wetter during the second half of December and remains favorable for the remainder of the growing season, soybean yields could still be as high as 59-60 sacks per hectare (52.7-53.6 bu/ac).

With the delayed soybean planting, the planting window for safrinha corn is going to be very tight and if the weather remains dryer-than-normal, farmers may opt for less safrinha corn and more grain sorghum.

Conab's December Report - Conab will release their December Crop Report on Thursday, December 8th. Conab is currently estimating the 2022/23 Brazil soybean production at 152.3 million tons.