Dec 08, 2022

High Temperatures Forecasted for Far Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The official start of summer is still two weeks away, but the state of Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil is forecasted to have extremely high temperatures this week. Temperatures over the next few days could be as high as 40°C (104°F) with low relative humidity. The hottest temperatures are expected in the western part of the state neighboring on Paraguay and Argentina.

This the third year in a row that southern Brazil has encountered hot temperatures and below normal rainfall due to the continuing influence of La Nina. The high temperatures are not going to be limited to just Rio Grande do Sul, similar temperatures are forecasted for Santa Catarina, Parana, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.

Metrologists are forecasting even higher temperatures as high as 42°C (107°F) in parts of Paraguay and northern Argentina.

Corn is the crop most at risk in Rio Grande do Sul because as of late last week, approximately half of the corn was pollinating or filling grain. According to the vice-president of Aprosoja-RS, the current dry weather has the potential to reduce corn production in the state by 15-20%.

The soybeans in the state were 73% planted as of late last week compared to 78% average. The soybean development will be slowed by the adverse conditions, but the crop could still recover if the weather improved for the remainder of the growing season.

La Nina is expected to persist until January or February when it is forecasted to weaken to a neutral position. Until then, there could be more episodes of high temperatures in southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.