Dec 09, 2022

Conab Lowers 2022/23 Brazil Corn Production, Soy Unchanged

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their December Crop Report, Conab lowered the 2022/23 Brazilian corn estimate 0.57 million tons to 125.82 million and they left the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 153.47 million tons.

Conab issued a word of cation and warned that soybean and corn yields could be negatively impacted by potentially below normal rainfall in central, east-central, and southern Brazil during the December-January-February period.

For the second month in a row, Conab increased the Brazilian soybean acreage. The 2022/23 Brazilian soybean acreage is now estimated at 43.40 million hectares (107.19 million acres), which is up 160,000 hectares from last month (395,200 acres). The soybean acreage increased primarily in Mato Grosso, Parana, and Tocantins and the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean acreage is now up 4.6% compared to 2021/22.

While the soybean acreage increased, the soybean yield was lowered 0.3 bu/ac to 3,536 kg/ha (52.6 bu/ac). Below normal and irregular rainfall in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias resulted in lower yield estimates. The Brazilian soybean production of 153.47 million tons is a new record production and it represents an increase of 27.9 million tons compared to 2021/22 or 22.2%.

It was a mixed report for the three corn crops in Brazil. The production of the first corn crop was lowered, the production of the second corn crop was left unchanged, and the production of the third corn crop was increased. The result was a 570,000 ton reduction from last month.

The first crop corn acreage was increased 20,000 hectares from last month (49,400 acres) to 4.42 million (10.91 million acres), but the corn yield was lowered 3.6 bu/ac to 6,156 kg/ha (97.8 bu/ac). The first crop corn production was lowered 930,000 tons to 27.22 million. The lower yields were the result of below normal rainfall and high temperatures especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is the Brazilian state with the largest first crop corn acreage. The first crop corn acreage is down 2.8% compared to last year.

All the estimates for the safrinha corn crop were left unchanged in the December Report. The acreage is estimated at 17.25 million hectares (42.60 million acres), the yield was unchanged at 5,580 kg/ha (88.7 bu/ac), and the production was unchanged at 96.27 million tons. The safrinha corn acreage is up 5.4% compared to last year.

The estimated acreage for the third corn crop was unchanged at 660,900 hectares (1.63 million acres), but the yield was increased 8.6 bu/ac to 3,526 kg/ha (56.0 bu/ac). The production of the third corn crop was increased 360,000 tons to 2.33 million. The third crop corn acreage is unchanged from last year.

The first crop corn production represents 21.6% of Brazil's total corn production while the safrinha corn production is 76.5% of the total and the third crop is 1.8% of the total.