Dec 12, 2022

Conab Warns of Potential Moisture Deficits in Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Conab issued a word of cation in their December Crop Report, which was released Thursday, December 8. They warned that 2022/23 soybean and corn yields could be negatively impacted by potentially below normal rainfall in central, east-central, and southern Brazil during the December-January-February period.

Below is Inmet's forecast for rainfall probability in Brazil during the December-January-February period. As you can see, below normal rainfall is forecasted for parts of central and east-central Brazil, southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Sul.

Even though there is a lot of red on the map, the red areas will still get rain although it may be below normal. An important thing to remember is that December-January-February is the peak of the rainy season in Brazil and most areas of central Brazil receive more rain than what is needed to sustain the crop. The temperatures and the timing of the rain, or the dry intervals, will be critical for the soybean crop. A prolonged period of hot and dry weather at the critical soybean pod filling period can be more important than simply below normal rainfall during the growing season.