Dec 13, 2022

Mato Grosso Should Plant Safrinha Corn Within the Ideal Window

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Safrinha corn yields in Brazil are highly correlated with the planting date. The earlier the corn is planted after the soybeans are harvested, the greater the yield potential for the corn.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimated last week that 98.8% of the state's safrinha corn could be planted within the ideal planting window, which extends through the third week of February (see graph below). This is good news for the potential corn yields in Mato Grosso, which is Brazil's largest safrinha corn producing state.

Two factors are contributing to the projected rapid planting pace. The first is that farmers in Mato Grosso are planting more early maturing soybeans specifically to allow more time to plant safrinha corn. The second factor is that in recent years, farmers have upgraded their planters to include bigger and more efficient models. The increased use of GPS also allows farmers to plant nonstop day-and-night when the weather permits.

This estimate from Imea assumes normal weather and does not consider the possibility of prolonged wet weather delaying the soybean harvest and the subsequent corn planting. During the 2021/22 growing season, Mato Grosso planted 82% of the safrinha corn during the ideal window.

Imea is projecting that farmers in Mato Grosso will plant 7.42 million hectares of corn in 2022/23 (18.3 million acres), which represents an increase of 3.7% compared to last year. The average yield is estimated at 104.3 sacks per hectare (99.4 bu/ac), which is up 2% compared to last year and the total corn production in the state is estimated at 46.4 million tons, or up 5.8% compared to last year.

In the graph below titled "Projected Corn Planting in Mato Grosso During the 2022/23 Growing Season," the tan colored area is the ideal planting window for safrinha corn and the red dashed line is the projected planting of the 2022/23 safrinha corn. Imea is forecasting that 98.8% of the corn will be planted within the ideal window.