Dec 20, 2022
2022/23 Argentina Soybeans 50% Planted, 19% Slower than Average
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Weather in Argentina continues to be problematic. They had a temporary reprieve with some rain last week and lower temperatures, but the weather this week looks generally dry again with the possibility of rain late in the week and into next week. The rains may improve the soil moisture a bit, but much more rain is needed to replenish the soil moisture.
The 2022/23 Argentina soybean production was lowered 2.0 million tons to 45.0 million and it could move even lower if the weather does not improve. If you compare this year to last year, the soybeans are being planted later this year compared to last year and the weather has been more adverse than last year. The 2022/23 soybeans are rated 19% good/excellent compared to 85% last year. The soil moisture this year is rated 32% short/very short compared to 9% last year. The 2022/23 crop is in worse condition compared to last year and last year's production was 44 million tons.
Farmers in Argentina accelerated their planting last week with 50.6% of the soybeans planted as of late last week compared to 67.8% last year and 69.5% average. This represents an advance of 13% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans are 65-75% planted. In some of the southern areas, the soybeans are 65% planted with only 20% planted in other areas. In far northern Argentina, less than 5% of the soybeans have been planted. The Argentine soybeans are germinating and in vegetative development.
The soybeans are being planted very late (19% behind average) with half of the soybeans left to be planted. The longest day of the year in the Southern Hemisphere will be on Wednesday of this week and soybeans are triggered to flower when the days get shorter, so the later planted soybeans will be triggered to flower early in their development. It would be as if half of the soybeans in the U.S. were planted after June 21st, which would increase the risk of lower yields.
As I reported last week, the soybean specialists from the Rosario Grain Exchange, indicated if the soybean planting in the core area is delayed from October 15th to November 15th, the soybean yield can decline on average 25 kg/ha per day or 0.37 bu/ac per day. If the planting is delayed from December 1st to December 10th, the yield can decline 100 kg/ha per day or 1.49 bu/ac per day. Yield losses accelerate the longer planting is delayed throughout the month of December and that is going to be the case this growing season.
The soybeans in Argentina are rated 20% poor/very poor, 61% fair, and 19% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is up 8% from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 32% short/very short and 68% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is up 2% from the prior week. Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for December 15, 2022.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Dec. 7, 2022 | 35 (1) | 11 (78) | 34 (7) | 66 (91) |
| Dec. 15, 2022 | 20 (1) | 19 (85) | 32 (9) | 68 (90) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages