Dec 29, 2022

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans - Early Harvest Started in Mato Grosso

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather in Brazil last week featured heavier rains in the northern production areas and lighter rains in southern Brazil. The driest area of Brazil is Rio Grande do Sul and the state did receive some scattered showers over the holiday weekend, but it offered only temporary relief and there was not enough rain to recharge the soil moisture. The forecast is calling for more of the same - heavier rains in northern areas and light and scattered showers in the far southern areas.

The 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 151.0 million tons with a neutral bias. There are some good areas in Brazil and there are some areas that are not so good which leaves me in a quandary - should I increase the soybean estimate or lower the soybean estimate. I chose the middle path and left the estimate unchanged.

Mato Grosso - Some early soybeans are being harvested in Mato Grosso, but less than 1% of the state's soybeans have been harvested. As a comparison, on December 31, 2021 the soybeans in Mato Grosso were 0.63% harvested. The harvest percentage increased to 1.3% on January 7, 2022 and 31.8% on January 28, 2022. The harvest in Mato Grosso should progress at about the same pace this year unless wet weather during January delays the harvest.

Imea is forecasting that the soybean yield in the state will increase 1.8% compared to last year. Some areas of the state were dry during November, which limited the yield potential. The recent rains have increased and there is always the potential for excessive rain during January delaying the harvest and resulting in poor quality seed.

Parana - The soybeans in Parana are 1% germinating, 41% in vegetative development, 40% flowering, and 18% filling pods according to the Department of Rural Economics(Deral). The soybeans are rated 1% poor, 9% average, and 90% good. Deral estimates that farmers in the state planted 5.7 million hectares of soybeans (14.0 million acres) and the total statewide production will be 21.4 million tons. The soybeans encountered excessive rains at planting, low temperatures in October and regional drought in November and December.

Some of the poorer soybeans in the state are in the municipality of Guaira in the northwestern corner of the state. Rains have been irregular in the region with approximately half of the soybeans filling pods and in the need of rain. According to the president of the Rural Union of Guaira, soybeans that are filling pods needed rain "yesterday" to avoid severe yield losses. Approximately half of the soybeans are still flowering and would benefit from additional moisture. There are parts of the municipality where it has not rained for 30 days and farmers have already put in claims for crop insurance.

Mato Grosso do Sul - In the municipality of Laguna Carapa in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the soybeans have been developing normally but 30% of the crop is now filling pods and they will need rain by the end of this week to maintain the current yield potential. Rainfall will be even more important during January when 70% of the soybeans will be filling pods. During a normal year, soybean yields in the region are in the range of 58 to 65 sacks per hectare (52 to 58 bu/ac).