Jan 11, 2023

2022/23 Argentina Soy 82% Planted, Time Running Out to Plant

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Hot and dry weather prevailed across most of Argentina over the weekend with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s F (36-39 C) with limited shower activity in western Argentina. Hot and dry weather will continue early this week with showers possible this week.

Scattered rains around New Year's Day offered a brief respite for the crops in Argentina, but since then, the weather has turned problematic. Last week was generally dry and temperatures have turned very hot once again. Limited rainfall is expected this week with temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s F (36 to 39 C). The crops will continue to be under moisture stress and the Argentine crops will need rain at least through March

The soybean planting window in Argentina generally closes about the second week of January, but as of late last week, 19% of the soybeans had not been planted due to dry conditions, which equates to a little more than 3 million hectares. There are concerns that not all the double crop soybeans will get planted, especially if it stays dry for another 1-2 weeks. There is also the thought that some of the unplanted soybeans might be switched to corn instead. That would only occur if it started to rain before the end of January and if the long-range forecast called for continued rain into February and beyond. So far, that does not seem to be in the forecast.

In areas of Argentina, as much as 60% of the cropland is rented with rents in the range of 30-33 sacks of soybeans per hectare (26.8-29.8 bu/ac). In the harder hit areas, it is possible that the soybean yields may not be high enough to even pay the rent, much less cover the input costs.

The soybeans were 81.8% planted as of late last week compared to 93.5% last year and 92.8% average. This represented an advance of 9.6% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans were approximately 93% planted with 90-100% planted in southern Argentina and 15-25% planted in far northern Argentina.

The 2022/23 soybeans in Argentina are rated 38% poor/very poor, 54% fair, and 8% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 2% from the previous week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 43% short/very short and 57% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is up 1% from the prior week.

Below is the soybean planting progress in Argentina (black line) from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.