Jan 20, 2023

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Lowers Corn Estimate to 44.5 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Hot and dry conditions this week in Argentina resulted in a lower corn crop estimate from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. In their latest weekly report, the exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina's 2022/23 corn production by 5.5 million tons to 44.5 million. The condition of the corn in Argentina declined again this week to 47% rated poor/very poor, 48% rated fair, and 5% rated good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 2% from the prior week.

The exchange left the soybean estimate unchanged at 41.0 million tons, but it had previously been lowered also due to hot and dry conditions. The condition of the soybeans in Argentina is rated 60% poor/very poor, 37% fair, and 3% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 1% from the prior week.

The exchange had previously stated that the worst-case scenario for soybeans might be as low as 35.5 million tons and 37.8 million tons for corn.

Farmers in Argentina have planted 88.6% of their corn compared to 87.9% last year and 92.2% average. The ideal corn planting window in Argentina closes about the end of January and approximately 30% of the corn is pollinated or beyond.

The soybeans in Argentina are 95.5% planted compared to 98.6% last year and 98.3% average. The ideal soybean planting window in Argentina closed last week and approximately 40% of the soybeans are now flowering or beyond.

Both the corn and soybean crops are experiencing moisture stress, but metrologists are forecasting improved chances of rainfall over the weekend and into next week.