Feb 09, 2023

Conab Increases Brazil Soy Estimate Slightly, Lowers Corn 1.32 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their February Crop Report, Conab increased the 2022/23 soybean production by 0.17 million tons to 152.82 million and they lowered the 2022/23 corn production by 1.32 million tons to 123.74 million.

In their February report, Conab estimated the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean acreage at 43.33 million hectares (107.0 million acres), which was down 120,000 hectares from their previous report (296,400 acres). The soybean acreage is up 4.4% compared to the previous year. The nationwide soybean yield is now estimated at 3,528 kg/ha (52.5 bu/ac), which is up slightly from last month. The 2022/23 soybean production is up 21.8% compared to last year's drought stricken crop.

The Brazilian soybeans were 9% harvested as of late last week compared to 16% last year. This represented an advance of 4% for the week. Wet weather in central Brazil has slowed the initial soybean harvest.

Conab lowered the 2022/23 corn production by 1.32 million tons to 123.74 million based on a lower safrinha production. This was their first official assessment of the 2022/23 safrinha corn production in Brazil based on field observations. The safrinha corn acreage is now estimated at 16.97 million hectares (41.91 million acres) which is down 280,000 hectares from their previous estimate (691,600 acres). Even with the reduction, the safrinha corn acreage is still up 3.7% compared to last year.

Brazil's first corn crop is estimated at 26.46 million tons (21.3% of Brazil's total corn production), with the safrinha production estimated at 94.96 million tons (76.7% of the total), and the third crop estimated at 2.31 million tons (1.8% of the total).

As of late last week, 12% of Brazil's safrinha corn had been planted compared to 24% the year before. This represented an advance of 7% compared to the prior week. The slow planting pace is a concern because the ideal planting window will close in about one to two weeks. There will probably be more safrinha corn planted after the ideal window closes than what had originally been expected. Farmers will probably plant safrinha corn past the ideal window due to the strong corn price, but if it gets too late, some farmers may opt for grain sorghum in central Brazil or winter wheat in southern Brazil.